tJP

“Twitter is dying” prompted me to look at what the issues for Twitter. They are typical of a fast growing company in technology. In particular Twitter is a disruptive technology and it can learn from the success of Facebook on what to do next.

According to comScore the Australian audience of Internet users was 12.3m in June 09. Looking at the use of Social media with these audiences, you find that Facebook is used by 49% of this audience, Twitter by 6.4% and Digg 3.5%.

This is important data when considering what type of people are currently using these tools. Using the diffusion of innovation curve below and looking at the penetration rates - then its clear that Facebook is now entering the Late Majority stage of its adoption curve - where the overwhelming pressure from peers is influencing usage.

Both Digg and Twitter are in the Early Adopter phase. This is usually characterised by opinion formers and ‘role models’ driving adoption. The next phase for both of these companies is to grow into the Early Majority phase - this is one where the pace slackens, users are more deliberate and users are willing to adopt only after peers have adopted. Unfortunately the opinion leaders in the early phases have no influence on this next phase.

This original work by Everett Rogers was then extended by Geoffrey Moore to look specifically at high technology products from start-up. Commonly known as “Crossing the Chasm” , Moore’s book looks at the different stages and how there is a chasm between the Early Adopters and the Early Majority. The key lessons for Twitter and for Digg is that they need to focus on changing their strategies to be successful.

Currently Twitter is targeting the rare breed of people who have the insight to match an emerging technology to a strategic opportunity - prepared to take on a high-visibility, high risk project.

Their successors in Early Majority detest risk, waste of money and time. The quality of the product is key and will tend to communicate more with others from within their own social group of industry - rather than look outside. The way to success in this segment and ultimately for the whole market is to focus on a niche, to dominate that niche and to build a reference base in the pragmatists within that niche. Then to grow the niche and then develop another niche and grow from there.

In a previous post I discussed why Twitter activity in corporate was good, but not really fixing the problem. Being fast and flexible over Twitter to offer a ‘better’ customer service experience is in many instances just ‘papering over the cracks’ over a series of business processes and departments that are not yet designed for the online world - with its heightened expectations.

In particular I noted that companies with distribution channels or retail outlets such as banks, supermarkets and phone companies were the least able to really make a difference. For example is your local supermarket is out of your favourite bread then you might well be able to tweet it, but the ability of the store to do something about it was limited.

I discussed with with some people who understand Twitter much better than I do and essentially there are ways and means, but it requires both sides to be ’switched on’ to the situation.

So if I have a complaint rather than Tweet “Coles in Mosman out of sourdough” a much better tweet would be “#Coles #Mosman out of sourdough #outofstock”. The use of the #hashtag allows better searching.

Now assume that each store does have a PC! And in this case the Coles supermarket manager in Mosman has setup his searches for #Coles #Mosman then he will be able to see the issue and then take some action. Similarly the supply chain manager in central supply somewhere can track what is out of stock and she can identify trends.

Seems like a neat solution? Not perfect as it needs to raise the users awareness of the tool and it would be super-neat if it was done automatically.

There may be better ways of fixing this sort of issue, but its a start. Better ways to do it - then please comment.